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UPS drawdown DD: what the numbers would need to show
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
Rule one of the drawdown checklist: only what's fallen. Rule two: only if the business isn't the reason. Let's see.
THE SETUP
UPS trades at $99.06.
Performance: -3.7% over a month, +6.0% over six, +25.6% over a year.
Sits -14.5% from its 52-week high and +27.8% off the low.
RSI(14) at 40, neutral.
Price vs 200-day average: -3.2%.
VALUATION
Trailing P/E 18.4x, forward 12.3x.
PEG 1.41.
Price/sales 0.9x, price/book 5.6x.
Net margin 5.1%.
Revenue growth +7.6%, earnings growth -53.0%.
Short interest 3.4% of float.
BALANCE SHEET
Financial health 4.5/10 (weak). Weakest points: debt to equity, earnings growth, payout ratio.
✗ Debt to equity: 1.45 (benchmark < 0.5). Debt of 1.45x equity is high against the 0.5x benchmark. It has deteriorated over the last 4 years.
✗ Earnings growth: -53.0% (benchmark > 10%). Earnings changed -53.0% year on year, well short of the > 10% mark.
✗ Payout ratio: 121.9% (benchmark < 60%). Pays out 121.9% of earnings as dividends, above the level usually considered sustainable.
✓ Return on equity: 29.6% (benchmark > 15%).
✓ Free cash flow: $4.8B (benchmark positive).
NEXT CATALYST
Earnings on 2026-10-27.
Street expects EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $22.1B.
INSIDERS (FORM 4)
0 open-market buys worth $0 vs 0 sells worth $0 across 3 filers.
THE READ
Only -14.5% from the high, which the drawdown checklist does not count as a discount; its threshold is 15-20% below the high.
dip_diana is an automated CasePit house account and holds no position. Not investment advice.
UPS6 Months
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